2024 INDIA LOK SABHA ELECTIONS OPINION POLL PROJECTIONS
The 2024 Lok Sabha elections in India, spanning 44 days over seven phases, are historic in scale and complexity. Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeks a third term amidst shifting voter preferences and challenges from regional players. Opinion polls suggest uncertainty, with the BJP aiming to maintain dominance and socio-political factors influencing outcomes. These elections promise to shape India’s political future significantly.
The 2024 India TV-CNX Opinion Poll
The 2024 India TV-CNX Opinion Poll indicates a significant advantage for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Projections suggest the NDA may secure 399 seats, just shy of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ambitious target of “400-paar.” Despite the much discussed I.N.D.I.A bloc, the opposition appears to be struggling, with forecasts indicating they may be limited to 94 seats. The Congress seems poised for another disappointing performance, possibly securing only 38 seats, reminiscent of its 2019 showing. The survey, conducted across all 543 constituencies, included a significant number of respondents, totalling 1,79,190, with roughly equal representation from males and females.
NDTV’s poll of opinion polls for the 2024
Lok Sabha elections According to NDTV’s poll of opinion polls for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is expected to win 372 out of 543 contested seats. The Congress-led I.N.D.I.A bloc is projected to secure 122 seats, with the remaining 49 going to parties not aligned with either side. The data is drawn from nine polls, with various projections indicating the NDA’s dominance, particularly in states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Madhya Pradesh. The BJP is also predicted to perform well in states like Maharashtra and West Bengal, while making potential gains in the southern states.
Bihar in strong support for Modi as Prime Minister in Bihar
The latest opinion poll by ABP-CVoter indicates the BJPled NDA’s strong hold in Bihar ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections. According to the survey conducted from April 1 to April 9 among 2,600 respondents, 69% expressed a preference for Narendra Modi as Prime Minister. The poll predicts that the NDA is likely to secure over 50% of the votes in Bihar, while the I.N.D.I.A alliance would receive only 36% of the votes. In terms of leadership preference, Rahul Gandhi trails behind Modi, with only 23% of voters preferring him for the PM’s post. Satisfaction with PM Modi’s performance is high, with 58% expressing complete satisfaction.
INDIA'S ELECTION 2024 :- A Closer Look at the Congress Party's Manifesto
The main opposition party, the Congress party, has released its manifesto titled “Nayra: Document for Justice.” Let’s delve into the top 10 promises outlined in this comprehensive document, shedding light party’s policy priorities and vision for the nation.
1. Nationwide Caste Census : Congress plans to update India’s caste data for accurate distribution of social benefits.
2. Raising Quota Limits: Promises to amend the constitution to increase reservation quotas in government institutions, allowing for a higher percentage of seats reserved based on caste in government institutions and employment opportunities.
3. Right to Apprenticeship: Introducing a law to provide one-year apprenticeships for diploma or degree holders under 25, facilitating skill development and employment.
4. Legally Guaranteeing MSP : Commitment to legally ensure Minimum Support Price for 23 agricultural crops , extending beyond wheat and rice to cover all 23 crops. This move seeks to provide farmers with assured income and protect their livelihoods.
5. Raising National Minimum Wage: Aims to increase the national minimum wage to Rs 400 per day.
6. Universal Healthcare: Proposes free medical services at public hospitals for all citizens.
7. Filling Government Job Vacancies: Plans to expedite filling millions of vacant government positions.
8. Restoring Statehood for Jammu and Kashmir: Vows to restore Jammu and Kashmir’s statehood status.
9. Cancelling the Agnipath Scheme: Proposes to cancel a controversial military recruitment program.
10. Foreign Policy Reforms: Pledges to recalibrate foreign policy, focusing on India-China border issues and diplomatic relations with neighboring countries such as Nepal, Bhutan, and the Maldives.
INDIA'S ELECTION 2024 :- A Closer Look BJP Party's Manifesto
BJP Party’s Manifesto In his manifesto “Modi’s Guarantee,” Prime Minister Modi highlights key priorities: job creation, digital infrastructure and social welfare.
1. Free food grains extension: BJP plans to extend the existing scheme for another 5 years, benefitting around 800 million Indians.
2. Expanding Ayushman Bharat scheme: Free health coverage up to 5 lakh rupees for poor families and free health coverage for senior citizens (ages 60 and above).
3. Free electricity for poor families.
4. Increasing minimum support price (MSP) for crops: BJP promises to periodically increase MSP, a key issue in agricultural states.
5. Implementing Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA): BJP pledges to fast-track citizenship for religious minorities from neighboring countries but excludes persecuted Muslims.
6. Uniform Civil Code: BJP aims to replace personal laws with a uniform civil code, merging traditions with modern principles.
7. One nation, one election: BJP proposes to synchronize national and state elections to streamline the electoral process.
8. Becoming the third-largest economy: BJP aims to surpass Japan and Germany in GDP ranking by 2030.
9. Making India a “Vish Bandhu” (relative of the world): Includes leading the global South, UN Security Council membership, neighborhood-first policy, and Indo- Pacific cooperation.
10. Creating a “Surakshit Bharat” (secure India): Zero tolerance to terrorism, military infrastructure improvement, and protection of national interests in the Indian Ocean.
WHAT 70 YEARS OF CONGRESS RULE FAILED TO ACHIEVE
Electrification of railway lines: Over 20,000 kilometers achieved in seven decades by congress, while over 40,000 kilometers achieved in just 10 years under Modi government.
Road construction: Over 18,000 km of national highways built in seven decades by Congress compared to over 30,000 km constructed in the past 10 years by Modi government.
Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi initiated the distribution of 5 kg of grains per person per month to 80 crore poor individuals, ensuring this guarantee until 2029. The government provided LPG gas connection in every household, initiated the “Nal se Jal” scheme, lakh to 60 crore people, and subsequently provided homes to numerous individuals. With 3 crore homes already distributed.
The length of National Highways has increased from 7000 KM to 12000 KM during the 10-year leadership of PM Shri Narendra Modi. Nine airports have been constructed , with 12 more under construction including Asia’s largest airport in Jewar. Over 2 domestic airways have been established, along wit metro expansion in 12 states.
Two AIMS and 68 medical colleges have been established, with 22 more medical colleges under construction. Additionally, efforts have been made to enhance tourism, with over Rs 180 crore spent on different tourism initiatives.
More than 24,000 houses have been built, and 5 lakh people got benefits under Ayushman Bharat Yojana. Furthermore, 72 lakh people in Uttar Pardesh have received gas connections, including 32 lakh in Manipuri, and 73 lakh farmers have benefited from the Kisan Samman Nidhi Scheme.
The Congress slogan “gareebi hatao” has not proved its worth. During their reign, Indians remained poor.
After independence, some Congressmen, believing that power was rightfully theirs, developed a ‘badshahi’ (monarchical) mindset, which led them to mock the poor, Dalits and backward groups.
“This badshahi mindset made them think of people as their slaves. In 2014, the oppressed classes found their voice, but those with badshahi mindset kept making fun of marginalised, Dalit, backwards and insulting our schemes… they are in despair after seeing their corruption scandals unravel and give me death threats. But they don’t know that the poor, women , youth, Dalit and Adivasi are the shield for lotus”, says Modi.
Keeping the whole 70 years aside, if we only look at the last tenure of 2004-14, it was a ‘Lost Decade’. The government was led by Manmohan Singh, who turned a blind eye to all the corruption that kept on happening under his rule. In those days, papers were filed with the news of corruption, looking at which the heads of every Indian would hang in shame,” it further added “Coal scam of Rs 1.8 lakh crore, 2G Spectrum scam of Rs 1.7 lakh crore, MNREGA scam of Rs 10 lakh crore, Commonwealth scam of Rs 70,000 crore,” it further added.
Modi stated the Congress has looted Rs 48,20,69,00,00,000 (nearly Rs 5 trillion) from the public in 70 years of its rule. That money could have been utilised for so many useful areas of security and development.